Professional work experience - public sector
This page provides links to examples of work I have led/contributed to in various professional economist roles across the public sector.
Parliamentary Budget Office
The sensitivity of budget projections to changes in economic parameters: estimates from 2014–15 to 2024–25 (report no. 03/2014)
Summary:
The medium-term projections in the Australian Government’s 2014–15 Budget show the budget achieving balance in 2018–19 and a surplus of 1.4 per cent of GDP in 2024–25, with tax receipts capped at 23.9 per cent of GDP. Total receipts are projected to rise from 23.6 per cent of GDP in 2014–15 to 25.8 per cent of GDP in 2024–25. The ratio of payments to GDP is projected to fall from 25.3 per cent in 2014–15 to 24.2 per cent in 2024–25. Net debt is projected to fall from 13.9 per cent of GDP in 2014–15 to 0.7 per cent of GDP in 2024–25. As the 2014–15 Budget Papers state, the projected fiscal consolidation over the medium term is based on Australia experiencing a further 10 years of uninterrupted economic growth. The performance of the economy is a key factor in the sustainability of the budget over the medium term. Growth in the nominal economy is the main driver of government revenue. Australia’s economic performance and hence its fiscal position is sensitive to changes in a number of economic parameters. This report examines the sensitivity of the 2014–15 Budget medium-term projections to a range of positive and negative shocks to three key economic parameters: labour productivity growth, the labour force participation rate and the terms of trade.
Summary:
The medium-term projections in the Australian Government’s 2014–15 Budget show the budget achieving balance in 2018–19 and a surplus of 1.4 per cent of GDP in 2024–25, with tax receipts capped at 23.9 per cent of GDP. Total receipts are projected to rise from 23.6 per cent of GDP in 2014–15 to 25.8 per cent of GDP in 2024–25. The ratio of payments to GDP is projected to fall from 25.3 per cent in 2014–15 to 24.2 per cent in 2024–25. Net debt is projected to fall from 13.9 per cent of GDP in 2014–15 to 0.7 per cent of GDP in 2024–25. As the 2014–15 Budget Papers state, the projected fiscal consolidation over the medium term is based on Australia experiencing a further 10 years of uninterrupted economic growth. The performance of the economy is a key factor in the sustainability of the budget over the medium term. Growth in the nominal economy is the main driver of government revenue. Australia’s economic performance and hence its fiscal position is sensitive to changes in a number of economic parameters. This report examines the sensitivity of the 2014–15 Budget medium-term projections to a range of positive and negative shocks to three key economic parameters: labour productivity growth, the labour force participation rate and the terms of trade.
2015-16 Budget: medium-term projections (report no. 02/2015)
Summary:
The 2015–16 Budget papers include projections of the underlying cash balance and net debt to 2025–26 but do not include projections of receipts and payments beyond the forward estimates period ending 2018–19. In this report the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) provides detailed projections of receipts and payments over the period beyond the forward estimates to 2025–26. The PBO’s projections are based on the 2015–16 Budget forward estimates, the economic forecasts and other parameters underpinning the 2015–16 Budget and the policy settings current as at the 2015–16 Budget. The PBO’s projections are not forecasts or predictions, but provide a detailed projected budget baseline over the medium term assuming no change in policy settings over the projection period.
Summary:
The 2015–16 Budget papers include projections of the underlying cash balance and net debt to 2025–26 but do not include projections of receipts and payments beyond the forward estimates period ending 2018–19. In this report the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) provides detailed projections of receipts and payments over the period beyond the forward estimates to 2025–26. The PBO’s projections are based on the 2015–16 Budget forward estimates, the economic forecasts and other parameters underpinning the 2015–16 Budget and the policy settings current as at the 2015–16 Budget. The PBO’s projections are not forecasts or predictions, but provide a detailed projected budget baseline over the medium term assuming no change in policy settings over the projection period.
Productivity Commission
Default Superannuation Funds in Modern Awards
Summary:
The Australian Government asked the Commission to undertake an inquiry into default superannuation funds in modern awards. The purpose of the inquiry was to design transparent and objective criteria for the selection and ongoing assessment of superannuation funds eligible for nomination as default funds in modern awards. In considering these criteria, the terms of reference stated that the Commission could have regard to the:
-appropriateness of the investment strategy of the default investment option of the fund in terms of risk and expected return
-medium to long term net-of-costs investment performance of the default investment option
-level of fees incurred by members
-scale of the fund and the level of services provided to fund members
-suitability and cost of insurance provided by the fund
-governance of the fund
-fees incurred and other impacts on members if they cease employment with an employer.
Summary:
The Australian Government asked the Commission to undertake an inquiry into default superannuation funds in modern awards. The purpose of the inquiry was to design transparent and objective criteria for the selection and ongoing assessment of superannuation funds eligible for nomination as default funds in modern awards. In considering these criteria, the terms of reference stated that the Commission could have regard to the:
-appropriateness of the investment strategy of the default investment option of the fund in terms of risk and expected return
-medium to long term net-of-costs investment performance of the default investment option
-level of fees incurred by members
-scale of the fund and the level of services provided to fund members
-suitability and cost of insurance provided by the fund
-governance of the fund
-fees incurred and other impacts on members if they cease employment with an employer.
Major Project Development Assessment Processes
Summary:
Major projects are a vital source of Australia’s future prosperity. They lift national income, create employment opportunities, raise productivity and generate revenue for governments. However, they can also have negative impacts on community amenity, the environment, public health and our heritage assets. Australian governments regulate major projects through development assessment and approvals processes to promote an appropriate balance between economic and other impacts on a community’s wellbeing. In this study the Commission has been asked to review and benchmark assessment and approval processes for major projects in Australian jurisdictions. Our study has found that there is substantial scope, without relaxing the stringency of regulations, to improve their efficiency so that regulatory goals are achieved at a lower cost to both proponents and communities.
Summary:
Major projects are a vital source of Australia’s future prosperity. They lift national income, create employment opportunities, raise productivity and generate revenue for governments. However, they can also have negative impacts on community amenity, the environment, public health and our heritage assets. Australian governments regulate major projects through development assessment and approvals processes to promote an appropriate balance between economic and other impacts on a community’s wellbeing. In this study the Commission has been asked to review and benchmark assessment and approval processes for major projects in Australian jurisdictions. Our study has found that there is substantial scope, without relaxing the stringency of regulations, to improve their efficiency so that regulatory goals are achieved at a lower cost to both proponents and communities.
Department of Treasury and Finance (Victoria), Budget Division and Economic and Financial Policy Division
Lead role in drafting the following key Budget documents:
Lead role in drafting the following key Budget documents:
- Fiscal Position and Outlook chapter of Budget Paper No.2, 1998-99 (this is the key budget strategy chapter, outlining the Government's overarching approach to fiscal policy)
- 1998-99 Mid Year Review (this is the mid-year review of the State budget, including assessment of fiscal trends)
- 1997-98 Budget Outcome Statement (this presents the outcomes of the previous financial year's budget)
Industry Commission, Labour Market Research Branch
Some of my work included:
Some of my work included:
- Drafted the “Paid non working time” chapter of the Work Arrangements in Container Stevedoring report to the Commonwealth Government and publicly released.
The Treasury, Budget Policy Branch
Some of my work included:
Some of my work included:
- Contributed to production of the 1996-97 Budget as a member of the Budget Policy Branch.